"Outgunned" – Artillery & The War in Ukraine – Developments, lessons, & logistics

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Comments and Caveats:

As always, a disclaimer that I come at this topic from a procurement, industry, and logistics lens. Not that of a veteran.

Four key comments at time of upload on this one:

Firstly – regarding artillery numbers, these are highly contentious. I've used Military Balance 2021 for consistency with my other videos, but estimates on Russian guns range widely (120 towed guns and 12,000 in reserve by once source, 7,000 active and basically no reserves in another for example). Take the figures as indicative – not as final. Figures on the Koalitsiya guns are likewise extremely diverse (8-72). Frankly, I'm not a huge fan of some parts of the MB2021 figures when it comes to Russian artillery, but again, there's value in consistency and using a recognised source, so I use them here. Also note the distinction between the guns of the Russian Ground forces, and total Russian artillery counts (including VDV and naval infantry).

Secondly – at one point discussing FIRMS data I think I say June when I mean July

Thirdly – When discussing 155mm ammo purchases in the USA – I say the USA would need to increase production 3x to hit a 10,000 rounds a day target. The actual multiplier is very roughly 30+x. You can tell I was tired when I recorded that bit.

I also want to be clear that drone-spotted artillery isn't new. What is new is the fact that every gunner and infantry squad in Ukraine seems to have at least a commercial quadrotor to spot for and correct fire.

Finally – I talk a lot about what we have video evidence of during this video – just make sure to remember the point we've made in other videos regarding this sort of evidence….people don't upload videos where things go badly (e.g. when they miss).

There are so, so many people who say and genuinely believe some stupid nonsense about this war that need to be stuck in a room to watch a few of Perun's slideshows.

About the changes in echo/sound: those can be a really good tool – a way of saying "this content is in a different category from the previous content". So far from homogenizing the video, have you considered deliberately including sound variations to mark out, say, sarcastic remarks, or side-notes, or section titles?

While its true that unguided rockets launched on a ballistic trajectory are almost useless, that might not be the case with the latest munitions. The US is shipping APKWS rockets, a laser guided version of the common Hydra 70, that has a similar form factor to Soviet rockets. So these should be capable of being carried by existing Ukrainian helicopters with little modification. They can be launched on a ballistic path to the general area of the enemy like the old soviet rockets, but then a soldier or drone on the front line with a laser designator can guide the rocket to a target. It would take extensive training to work well, but it would give the ability to send pgms rapidly to any part of the front.

Perun, I noticed you use the word “rebore”, but when I went reading it seems modern artillery do not used”built up” guns with liners. Rather they are lighter prestressed designs. As they are fired, the bore grows from erosion and from relaxation of compressive prestress. Inspection findings of fine cracking increases the inspection frequency to reject before bursting risk. As you wrote, wearing tends to reduce velocity and accuracy. From what I read, the 152 barrels are dumped on site and not returned for recycling. I found comments of 3000 EFC max use with inspections. I cannot find manhours or equipment list to swap in the field. I am guessing a crane, 5 guys, and a day? I found a comment that three barrels from the SP is a max load on a rail car.
Curious how much capacity they have in cranes, crews, delivery.

Year into the war and 80% of predictions from early 2022 were fake.

Is that mortar on a Studebaker truck?

60,000 rounds…. "To a hammer everything is a nail." What do you want to be they're doing this because the troops and command in place doesn't know any different. "This is a war. We fire artillery and rockets. That's how it's done." Consider how many casualties (and firings) Russia has had in higher rank positions. The people in those positions now may have largely promoted beyond their competence. Mix in communication issues, low professional military education, and terror of further loss….. what would they do? Fire rounds. Barrels are worn out? Don't care. Fire rounds.

Russia only knows quantity. It worked for them on the past, so they probably don't feel like they should change their way of fighting wars.

Another great video. I didn't see any mention on shelf life on artillery shells when you stock pile them in this video I think you did mention it in another video was wondering what impact that has on the stocks of 152mm ammo that Russia may have access to if some of it would be less reliable and so their effective stocks might be a lot less.

All tubes kill.

Brilliant analysis and in depth study of the conflict with good explanation.

Great definition of "Operational Targets":
"Things that are decently behind the lines, but have great value if destroyed."
[My 2nd watch.]

“Statistically speaking you come out fine.” Try it scum bag. God, find your way into the nearest infantry company.