• Tue. Mar 28th, 2023

Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War – fortifications, attrition, and lessons


Mar 13, 2023

As always, please check the pinned comment for any notes or corrections. For months now, a city with a pre-war population of …


31 thoughts on “Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War – fortifications, attrition, and lessons”
  1. I get the credit for these, but thanks to the people whose input makes it possible.

    Thanks to those in Ukraine who take the time out of, you know, fighting a war in order to correspond with someone in Australia about their experiences with this kind of fighting.

    Also, since I know absolutely nothing about the practicalities of clearing a minefield under fire and how you could do it without vehicular support – special thanks to a USMC combat engineer (cheers Sgt Kates) for sharing some combat engineering 101 with me and discussing the implications that overhead threats have for entrenchments and ammo storage (plus introducing me to the APOBS).

    Note: on one slide I say that EU sources estimate approx 100,000 Ukrainian killed + wounded over the course of the war. that means 100,000 casualties including killed and wounded (large majority wounded). it doesn't mean 100,000 killed plus some extra number of wounded /endnote

  2. about the russian way of fighting being in efficient, well, one way to look at this would be to take a look at how russia, soviet union and the russian empire before that have fought wars in the past. …from my very little amateur knowledge its been always like this more or less. Rather uncaring use of own soldiers and equipment with the mentality that there will be more where they came from griding it with time. Usually this combined with attackers (!) long logistic lines and winter has then eventually given the grind advantage to russians. Anyways, the mentality there is clearly still one of that assets (both men and equipment) are to be used with out much consideration ….and how that could be surprising when much of the leadership structre itself is build around corruption instead of merit and skill. "Uraa" is an easy "heroic" looking tactic to commit no matter how lacking in skills one is i guess.

  3. 303 days below the Sun,
    Fields of Bakhmut, and the battle has begun
    Nowhere to run, father and son
    Fall one by one under the gun

  4. A pre-fab concrete bunker sunk halfway into the ground, with the dirt piled on top, plus logs, RR ties, extra bags of cement(dry) piled on top and maybe some corrugated steel and camo netting…. I think I’d bet my life on that to anything but a real close hit.

  5. So when are u gonna predict something significant with accuracy? Remember Izium. All which is objectively quantifiable is that Russian army is extremely easy to fool. Stop talking bout when Bakhmut falls, there is no domino effect.. Take one Bakhmut, 50 more will wait. Meanwhile you're going to get sniped long range, deal with internal army split and bring out some spets uhm I mean Shovelnaz special Mobik forces to hell dig some more Graves to chill out in yourselves..

  6. As usa patriot I'm totally in support of Ukraine.. could you do an analysis of China waiting till NATO countries deplete resources in support of Ukraine and then open a second front by invasion of Taiwan.

  7. There's a US Armored Captain that frequents a forum I post in-for the past decade, every time he's asked what a peer war for the West would look like, he's answered "All the best equipment smashed each other apart within a week, and then it's WWI with Ipads."

  8. Aloha. Great stuff as always.
    I hear /read about antitank mines but not much about anti personnel Lin the land between Russian and Ukraine lines.

  9. Hearing about artillery or rocket deployed mines sent a shiver up my spine because those kinds of systems often kill civilians long after the war is over and are difficult to clean up. The humanitarian groups are going to have a hell of a time finding and clearing these minefields.

  10. Bakhmut is just the latest in a string of Russian miscalculations and failures. More and more we see the Russians as a bunch of intellectually challenged thugs with about as much military skill and finesse as a fat gorilla with a wasp in its pants. Russia will be screwed for the next 20 years as a result of this ill conceived war. Frankly the Russian people deserve all they get for allowing themselves to be ruled by the likes of Putin.

  11. I was a chemical soldier. Seeing the WW1 type of pictures makes me gasp, as that is when the Chem corp was formed. I hope neither side uses and chemical weapons. Nasty stuff.

  12. Here we are a month later…. Russia is still wearing NATO's @$$ out.. lets talk about those horrific KIA ratios…. and the first person who cites Ukraine figures gets punched in the yak… 157K Ukraine KIA to Russia 18K KIA… Ukraine pissed away lives for Kherson which was useless once the Russians withdrew across the Dneiper and blew the bridges.. Soladar is a wrap….Bahkmut has been a Ukrainian meat grinder and is soon to fall within days…so out of all the comments mine has come to pass…

  13. 20:18 It's importan to note that UA already had an indigenous guided artillery capability in the Kvitnyk laser guided (SAL) round. Being laser guided gives the advantage that you can hit a moving target. They also had a 122mm equivalent (KARASUK) and even a 155mm version aimed at export. It is unclear how many they had left and if the production locations have been destroyed. The main advantage of Excalibur is that there are enough to go around for all the new 155mm Howitzers UA now has, and the GPS guidance means that while it can only hit stationary targets , you don't need a spotter or a spotting UAV…the newest Excaliburs do have a secondary SAL capability I understand, but its not clear if UA has gotten any of those.

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